Background
Since 2001, the war against Taliban and like-minded groups are lingering. During the last decade, they are not defeated, but getting powerful than ever before. Back in November 2001 when United States (U.S.) and its allies invaded Afghanistan to end Taliban rule, the Taliban leaders were forced to retreat. However, after some time, Taliban regained control of more districts and provinces. It was mostly due to unclear strategy of Afghan government and its international allies.
As Taliban have regained control, they have increased their efforts to undermine government control. They even took the control of Kunduz city for a while. On the other hand, they threatened Helmand, Farah and Uruzgan provinces’ centers seriously.
Now Taliban show their military power and fight against Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan National Police (ANP) forces. Meanwhile, the international community and Afghan government have come to realize that the military option is not effective. And through this strategy, they will not succeed completely.
Current Situation
Currently, Afghan government considers peace process and talks with Taliban seriously. And it considers this process is crucial more than anything else. But the problem is that years of peace talks have cost millions of dollars with no outcome. While, High Peace Council (HPC) is one of the most costly and ineffective organizations without any tangible results.
Meanwhile, the U.S. intends to begin direct talks with the Taliban. And, they seem to favor the notion that Afghan troops should retreat to cities. Even though such a move may allow Taliban control in rural area of the country. The Ministry of Defense (MoD) spokesman, Gen. Radmanish, says that the ministry wants to implement the policy of retreating from rural, sparsely populated and less strategic areas. It is also calling off the ANSF and suggesting them to retreat to cities. MoD believes that this tactic is to protect military forces from possible attacks. It may also increase their capability and prevent civilian causalities.
Change in Trump Strategy
According to New York Times report that was published on 28 July 2018, the Trump administration is urging American-backed Afghan troops to retreat from sparsely-populated areas of the country, which may allow Taliban to gain control of vast stretches of the country. It is also meant to protect military forces from attacks at isolated and vulnerable outposts, and focus on protecting cities such as Kabul, the capital, and other population centers. In last week, most of the causalities from Afghan forces and citizens were due to Taliban attack on check-post in sparsely populated areas.
The Times also highlighted that the new strategy depends on the Afghan government’s willingness to pull back its own forces; nevertheless, some Afghan commanders have resisted the American effort to do so, fearing local populations would feel betrayed.
“Should Afghan troops pull back now, defending remote pockets of the country would mostly be left to the local police, that have poorer training than the military and are far more vulnerable to Taliban violence,” the report said, noting that in some areas, police officers have cut deals with the Taliban to protect themselves from attacks.
Concerns Regarding the Strategy
According to reports, Afghan Police in some areas, plotted to sell the check post along with ammunition and weapons to the Taliban, which raises serious concerns about the future of such move by Afghan and U.S. forces.
Most of 14,000 United States troops currently in Afghanistan have pulled back to cities. Some who are training and advising Afghan troops as part of Trump’s war strategy perform duties in bases in remote areas and smaller towns.
However, Trump administration favors to end the war in Afghanistan. It strongly advised the Defense Secretary James M. Mattis to send 4,000 more troops to Afghanistan. And, it also ordered senior U.S. officials, including Pompeo and Alice Wells, the State Department’s top diplomat for Afghanistan to seek direct talks with Taliban.
Conclusion
As ANSF are not equipped and have no trustworthy backup in remote areas, Taliban can easily target them. Moreover, for the last three years, there are no sufficient forces to replace them. This has even hindered these Afghan soldiers to visit their families on vocations.
In the last two years, the military casualties are very high. On the other hand, the level of recruiting new troops has been low. This has led to a reduction in forces in the Afghan security and defense sector.
However, withdrawing troops from remote areas is a positive step. It can prevent more casualties of security forces. On the contrary, the government needs to set up aggressive operations in insecure areas.
Finally, pulling back troops from sparsely populated areas is a move that would ensure that Taliban will remain in control of vast stretches of the country. However, it may show them a green light to stop fighting against Afghan government and join peace talks.
